Image: Bruno Cannatelli
Nature Strip is the short priced favourite in the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes
A crack field has been assembled for the Black Caviar Lightning (1000m) at Flemington on Saturday, where Nature Strip returns and will want to make a statement to start his year.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2023 Black Caviar Lightning.
2023 Black Caviar Lightning Speed Map
Nature Strip loves to dominate from the front but I doubt that will eventuate here. Marabi and Coolangatta will be ridden with intent, while Fire won’t be away. Roch N Horse likely stalks Nature Strip while Buenos Noches, drawn wide, will be slotting in for cover and getting a drag into the race.
2023 Black Caviar Lightning Runner Preview:
1. Nature Strip: It’s hard to get away from the champ. He did Australia proud at Royal Ascot when spanking them in the King’s Stand but that took it out of him in the Spring when run down in The Everest and Champions Sprint. Been given a good break for this prep and he has sizzled in both a Warwick Farm trial and Flemington jumpout. If he brings his best, which it looks like he will, he just wins.
2. I Wish I Win: Is he Private Eye 2.0? Gun miler that can turn out to be a gun sprinter? Golden Eagle winner that resumes and is using this to tune up for the Newmarket…I highly doubt he can win because he will be run off his legs but should be one of the strongest late.
3. Baller: Loves the straight course does this Queenslander. He ran in the Champions Sprint in the Spring and ran a beauty when a close up third to Roch N Horse. Trialled up super and he flies fresh. A win wouldn’t entirely shock with him.
4. Fire: He’s missing a 0 in his price surely. He shouldn’t be $51. He should be $501. He’s a nice horse and will be winning races, but not at Group l level.
5. Bella Nipotina: Ripping mare for the Maher/Eustace camp that broke a long run of Group l outs in the Spring when bolting up in the Manikato. Not sure the straight track suits her, but she’s very genuine and has trialled up well in readiness for her return. Doubt she wins but one for multiples.
6. Roch N Horse: Definite winning chance. Champions Sprint winner who I think shouldn’t be underestimated anymore. She is a gun sprinter and clearly has a liking for the straight course. Jumped out here last week and I thought went very well alongside Nature Strip. She’s right in the mix.
7. September Run: September Run is a classy mare for Chris Waller that resumes. She has a fab record down the straight and has run well in this race previously. Only the two run Spring prep, both at The Valley in the Moir and Manikato, the latter seeing her run a strong fourth to Bella Nipotina. She’ll likely be spotting them a start but will be one of the strongest at the end.
8. Marabi: She’s the X factor. Maher/Eustace trained Oakleigh Plate winner from last year that resumes, having not raced since the William Reid last year when a tiring fifth. Jumpout work has been more than encouraging and for mine, there is intent with this mare because she could have easily resumed in the Oakleigh Plate and defended her title, buts he takes on the big boys and girls here. Just depends how fit she is. Watch the market.
9. Buenos Noches: Buenos Noches is a quality colt for Matty Smith that resumes. He did an excellent job in the Spring, headlined by placings really. Beaten a lip by Giga Kick in the Danehill before going to the Coolmore where he ran a ripping third to star filly In Secret. He’s had two trials and a gallop between races to get ready for the return, and with upside/progression, he clearly rates highly.
10. Millane: This seems madness placement. He’s a solid three year old, but he’s no star, so I find it baffling that he resumes in such a hot race like this. Similar to Fire, he should be $501. No chance.
11. Coolangatta: Classy filly that resumes for the Maher/Eustace stable. Moir winner from the Spring who is a very sharp filly so 1000m is ideal for her. The query will be a fast 1000m against the big boys and girls. Will she be able to absorb pressure and keep finding, or will she put up the white flag?
2023 Black Caviar Lightning $100 Betting Strategy:
Keeping it simple. $100 win on Nature Strip. If he brings his best, he’ll be too good.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $3250
Group l Strategy Return: $1793.50
2023 Black Caviar Lightning Odds:
1. Nature Strip (1)
J: James Mcdonald
T: Chris Waller
2. I Wish I Win (4)
J: Luke Nolen
T: P G Moody
3. Baller (8)
J: Mark Zahra
T: Tony Gollan
4. Fire (3)
J: Damien Oliver
T: Michael & Wayne & John Hawkes
5. Bella Nipotina (7)
J: Ben Melham
T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
6. Roch ‘N’ Horse (2)
J: Jamie Mott
T: Michael Moroney
7. September Run (6)
J: Blake Shinn
T: Chris Waller
8. Marabi (5)
J: Ben Allen
T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
9. Buenos Noches (11)
J: Craig Williams
T: Matthew Smith
10. Millane (10)
J: Daniel Stackhouse
T: P G Moody
11. Coolangatta (9)
J: Ms Jamie Kah
T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
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